The forward premium in a model with heterogeneous prior beliefs
نویسنده
چکیده
This paper explores a model of bond prices where agents have diverse prior beliefs about domestic and foreign inflation. In the long run, the foreign exchange forward premium reflects expected differences in inflation, but in the short run, it depends upon the diversity of prior beliefs. If some people have diffuse priors about a country’s inflation process, then its currency commands a forward premium that is eventu ally dissipated. Using data on the dollaremark premium from the 1980s, it shows that this kind of diver sity really matters. Thus models with a single representative agent give an inadequate description of the data.
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